Mathematical Models for the Growth of Users Over Time

sbrijmohan
sbrijmohan Vanilla Bean
edited August 2021 in Talk Community #1

Hey everyone! In your research, have you found any mathematical models for the growth of users over time? Or even any data showing the growth over time of developer communities? I'm looking to find data around community membership, % of users of products who are in the community and growth rate or even screenshot of a graph that is user growth over time. Please LMK!

Thank you in advance!

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  • Adrian
    Adrian HLV Staff Alumni
    #2

    hi @sbrijmohan Wow - this so very specific. I have not seen anyone share this publicly, and it's also so dependent on so many factors - that I am not sure how applicable it would be for you. I think of such thing as having an impact such as:

    • Exisiting community vs new community
    • Visbility of community (public vs private)
    • Brand with passionate follow vs transactional nature of the community

    I guess my question would be more on what are you trying to prove? Or what is it you are trying to measure against? Are you trying to benchmark you community growth? I would suggest better to look at where yo are in a lifecycle:

    https://blog.vanillaforums.com/community-benchmarks-what-you-really-should-be-looking-at

    In terms of growth models, I am aware of the Bass diffusion model in terms of tech adoption, but not sure if that works for you. There is also the work by Christian Bauckhage (and co-authors) on social media, that may help: https://arxiv.org/pdf/1406.6529.pdf

    Certainly if you find a formula, model I have missed, or screenshots you will share - I'd love to see them.

    Hope that helps :)

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